$100 for a Covid-19 vaccine? That’s what Moderna says may be coming

As Moderna pivots away from Covid-19 to other vaccines, the mRNA-focused biotech is still plotting how it could hit $13 billion in annual US Covid-19 vaccine sales, with $100 shots and 50% of all adults getting a booster.

But the Boston-based company’s lofty expectations, revealed in a slide show yesterday as part of its R&D day, included an estimate that the worldwide pandemic Covid-19 vaccines market is worth more than $100 billion globally, as in high-income countries, the eligible high-risk population (elderly and those with high-risk) is about 340 million people.

“Our current pricing approach with governments was in a pandemic setting, as we head to the commercial market, we’ll be looking at a more value-based pricing,” Moderna chief commercial officer Arpa Garay told investors yesterday.

And in the US, Americans will have to fend with the commercial market as the government won’t have the necessary funds to make Covid vaccines free for all after the end of this year.

But insurance will still likely cover much of the cost of the shots for many after switching over to a commercial market, and the US will still dole out about 170 million of the upcoming bivalent boosters for free this fall and winter, Dawn O’Connell, HHS’ assistant secretary for preparedness and response, wrote in a blog post late last month.

Arpa Garay

Garay told investors yesterday, “The Covid market is going to start reflecting more like the flu market,” noting there’s a high likelihood that the Covid boosters will be annual, and most of the dose contracts will get done early in the year, and doses will be shipped later, very similar to the flu dynamic.

But plans for $100 Covid-19 vaccines would be a new high, and almost 6 times more than what the US government initially paid for the first doses.

Initially, according to the New York Times, Moderna charged the US government $15 to $16.50 for each Covid-19 shot (although the government also chipped in $1.3 billion for its development), and the EU paid between $22.60 to $25.50 for its Moderna doses.

But Moderna noted that it isn’t the only one seeing such a big price leap as according to CMS projections for 2023, the centers estimate an average per dose Covid-19 vaccine cost of $64, and vaccine administration cost of $40.

vaccines
biotech