AbbVie braces for ‘greater erosion’ of Humira franchise in second half of this year

AbbVie execs touted a wave of Rinvoq programs at Cowen’s annual conference on healthcare Tuesday as they brace for a tougher Humira battle in the second half of this year.

Since its first approval in rheumatoid arthritis in 2002, Humira became one of industry’s top sellers ever, adding a wide list of indications from ulcerative colitis to ankylosing spondylitis. The first biosimilar to Humira, Amgen’s Amjevita, launched at the end of January, and AbbVie execs announced on the last quarterly call that they expect a 37% drop in Humira sales this year.

Rob Michael

As vice chairman and president Robert Michael said during the Cowen presentation, AbbVie anticipates it will face the brunt of that competition in the second half of this year.

“You’ll see greater erosion in the second half because, one, in some cases we have rebates stepping up. We also have seven to nine biosimilars coming in the middle of the year, so we expect a little bit more of a volume impact in the second half of the year,” he said.

In Europe, where multiple biosimilars have launched, Humira’s revenue base is about a third of what it was before its loss of exclusivity, he added, while noting that “obviously the dynamics will be different in the US and when we’re ready to provide more guidance on a tail, we will.”

Chief commercial officer Jeffrey Stewart reported that in the UK, 11% of patients ultimately switch back to Humira. In some cases, for example, patients may experience a side effect that leads them back to brand-name Humira, he said, adding that those are typically “random inter-patient or individual patient experiences.”

Roopal Thakkar

CMO Roopal Thakkar touted a slate of Phase III launches coming this year, starting with Rinvoq in alopecia areata, hidradenitis suppurativa, lupus, and potentially vitiligo, if all goes well in a Phase II readout. He also touted an upcoming readout for Skyrizi in ulcerative colitis. CEO Rick Gonzalez previously predicted Rinvoq and Skyrizi would together surpass peak Humira sales by 2027. The two drugs collectively earned more than $2.3 billion in 2022 sales.

“One thing that investors may not appreciate is those Rinvoq indications can add a couple of billion dollars in the second half of this decade. So those are ones that aren’t necessarily captured in our 2025 guidance,” Michael said.

As for future growth, Gonzalez hinted on the last earnings call that AbbVie may be willing to chase after bigger deals if the right opportunity presents itself.

“If we find something that’s of interest, and could really help us round out a category that we’re in, then you should expect us to act on that,” Gonzalez said.

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