Eli Lilly anticipates revenue boost in 2023 as it prepares to launch slate of new drugs

Eli Lilly executives are bullish on its prospects for next year as the Indianapolis pharma lifts the cover on its 2023 financial guidance.

Revenues are expected to land between $30.3 billion and $30.8 billion next year, Lilly said on Tuesday, a bump over its expected 2022 revenue between $28.5 billion and $29 billion as reported in the third quarter. Lilly attributed the 2023 gains to “volume-based revenue growth” for existing products, along with up to four possible launches for donanemab, pirtobrutinib, lebrikizumab and mirikizumab. Among those, key Phase III readouts are expected for donanemab in early Alzheimer’s and mirikizumab in Crohn’s disease.

The four possible launches are in addition to the buzz around expected regulatory submissions for tirzepatide which nabbed a fast track designation in October in obesity and other possible “pipeline advancements.” Lilly is also planning a Phase III trial of retatrutide in obesity and orforglipron in Type II diabetes and obesity in 2023.

CEO David Ricks said in a statement:

Lilly is exiting 2022 with momentum. Our approved and available medicines are early in their life cycles and showed accelerated growth during the year, led by a strong Mounjaro launch. In addition, several of our late-stage medicines for serious diseases were submitted for approval this year, and will hopefully launch in 2023.

Anat Ashkenazi

Lilly CFO Anat Ashkenazi also noted that other treatments in the pipeline and the Mounjaro launch are reason for optimism heading into next year.

“With limited patent expirations this decade, we believe these potential new medicines and the continued scaling of our key growth products will fuel our next wave of growth. Lilly is committed to maximizing long-term value for stakeholders and we look forward to delivering further in 2023.” she said in a statement.

On the down side of the $30 billion, Lilly expects revenue to be partially offset by lower sales for Alimta due to its loss of “patent exclusivity,” along with no anticipated Covid-19 antibody revenue and the negative impact of foreign exchange rates.

Some of the setbacks were anticipated in a report from SVB Securities in November, with analysts forecasting a “stepdown” in Covid-19 antibody sales due to a lack of protection against the newer variants. Other issues in the analyst report included pressure from inflation and incremental costs for manufacturing.

Lilly is also expected to pay a lot of attention to Mounjaro, and will double manufacturing capacity for the drug by the end of 2023, the report said.

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